Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4895 · LGA → STL
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.