Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4946 · LGA → MCI
departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at LGA that day
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.