Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3504 · EWR → CLT
departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 12:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↑
CLT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.