Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3504 · EWR → CLT
departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 12:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.