Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3533 · EWR → CLT
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.