Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3533 · EWR → CLT
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.