Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3694
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3694 · SDF → EWR
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.29 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.