Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3694
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3694 · SDF → EWR
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.