Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3694
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3694 · SDF → EWR
departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 2:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.