Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3699 · MEM → EWR
departs 4:08 PM CT · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.11 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.