Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3699 · MEM → EWR
departs 4:07 PM CT · arrives 7:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.16 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.