Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3699 · MEM → EWR
departs 4:07 PM CT · arrives 7:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.