Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4382
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4382 · DCA → BOS
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±6 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.