Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4417 LANDED 8:47 PM CT, ~26 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 4417 · RDU → ORD

took off 8:01 PM ET · landed 8:47 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4417 · RDU → ORD

Odds over time