Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4431 · DCA → PBI
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 10:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PBI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.