Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4431 · DCA → PBI
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 11:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PBI is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
PBI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.