Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4431 · PBI → DCA
departs 11:19 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
37%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +35 pts in 24h
+35 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
37%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.