Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4431 · PBI → DCA
departs 11:37 AM ET · arrives 2:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PBI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.