Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4459 · MEM → DCA
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
24%
Cancelled
13%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
13%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.28 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.