Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4459 · MEM → DCA
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.24 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.