Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4460 · DCA → MEM
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.