Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4517 · DCA → IND
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.