Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4618 · DCA → SAV
departs 6:55 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SAV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SAV?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
SAV is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SAV at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SAV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.