Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4649 · DCA → MVY
departs 8:31 AM ET · arrives 10:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
MVY (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.