Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4649 · DCA → MVY
departs 8:31 AM ET · arrives 10:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MVY that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into MVY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MVY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.