Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4691 · DCA → BOS
departs 9:41 AM ET · arrives 11:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.