Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4691 · DCA → BOS
departs 9:41 AM ET · arrives 11:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
9am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.46 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.