Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4809 · ORD → DCA
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.