Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

YX 4809 · ORD → DCA

departs 10:42 AM CT · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4809 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?