Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5713 · DCA → JFK
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 47%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.