Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5713
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5713 · DCA → JFK
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at JFK that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.