Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5724
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5724 · LGA → DCA
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 28%
Thu 10/8 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
24%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.