Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5724
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5724 · LGA → DCA
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 67%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 28%
Thu 10/8 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.