Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5763
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5763 · DCA → LGA
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 52%
Mon 10/5 41%
Tue 10/6 37%
Wed 10/7 47%
Thu 10/8 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±7 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
24%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DCA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.