Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1224SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1224 · PHX → JFK
departs 12:53 PM MT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
20%chance · ±4 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.