Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1224SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AA 1224 · PHX → JFK
departs 12:53 PM MT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 140h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
29%chance · ±11 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.