AA 1292 · MIA → DEN

took off 8:53 PM ET · expected to land 10:30 PM MT (scheduled 8:46 PM ET → 11:09 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1292 · MIA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?