AA 1299 · DCA → MIA

took off 4:54 PM ET · landed 6:59 PM ET (scheduled 2:59 PM ET → 5:49 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.37 in

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1299 · DCA → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?