Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1318 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1318 · CLT → BWI

departs 10:45 PM ET · arrives 12:14 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.57 in

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1318 · CLT → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?