Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1505 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1505 · PHL → BNA

departs 3:41 PM ET · arrives 5:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1505 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?