Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1505 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1505 · PHL → BNA

departs 3:41 PM ET · arrives 5:01 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.23 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1505 · PHL → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?