Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1604SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1604 · SAT → MIA
departs 5:01 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
14%chance · ±2 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.