Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1604 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1604 · SAT → MIA

departs 5:01 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.70 in

MIA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1604 · SAT → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?