Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1604 LANDED 8:47 AM ET, ~6 MIN EARLY

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 1604 · SAT → MIA

took off 5:26 AM CT · landed 8:47 AM ET (scheduled 5:01 AM CT → 9:00 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

MIA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1604 · SAT → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?