AA 1614 · MCO → DCA

took off 5:58 PM ET · landed 7:46 PM ET (scheduled 5:13 PM ET → 7:45 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1614 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?