Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2046 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2046 · CLT → MCI

departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 4:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.54 in

MCI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2046 · CLT → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?