Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2402 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2402 · CLT → RDU

departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.79 in

RDU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2402 · CLT → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?