Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

AA 2424 · CLT → ROC

departs 4:23 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.83 in

ROC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2424 · CLT → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?