Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2424 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2424 · CLT → ROC

departs 4:23 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.03 in

ROC (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2424 · CLT → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?