Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2533 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2533 · CLT → EYW

departs 4:32 PM ET · arrives 6:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.54 in

EYW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2533 · CLT → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?